MB = MC as Weak Analysis

• John Vandivier

I was scrolling through some of the older things I said on Facebook and found this gem, which I stand by:

<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6589" src="http://www.afterecon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/mb-mc-cute-trick.png" alt="" width="535" height="461" />

This was in the particular context of bitcoin price forecasting, which I am notoriously good at. See <a href="http://www.afterecon.com/economics-and-finance/yes-called-2018-eth-btc-rebound/">here and <a href="http://www.afterecon.com/economics-and-finance/bitcoin-10000-roi-over-10-years-valuation-analysis-prediction/">here for example. I stated that MB = MC neglects that the real world has multiple equilibria, and these multiple equilibria are not co-equal. A secondary equilibrium nearer in price to the present equilibrium is always more likely than a price-distant alternative equilibrium with the same slope.